The search for ET is getting (a little) more serious

A new report into possible UFO sightings has prompted important debate among intelligent lifeforms here on Earth.

When – and if – Homo sapiens encounter intelligent extra-terrestrial life, the revelation will probably come not with a bang, but with thorough scientific investigation. 

A soon-to-be released report into UFO sightings has excited imaginations around the world about the possibility of alien contact – even though few reputable scientists believe that Unidentified Flying Objects spotted at various stages in human history are actually piloted by off-worlders. 

Instead, the consensus is that the UFOs referred to in the report to be handed to the United States Congress are better referred to as Unexplained Aerial Phenomena, and likely to be the work of Earthly intelligence. 

Still, as space exploration takes off once again and humankind is again looking to go to the Moon and on to Mars, and as new missions are looking at Venus and other planets, the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence is sparking curiosity more than ever. 

One of Australia’s top astrophysicists, Steven Tingay, thinks that it’s likely there’s something out there, somewhere. The John Curtin Distinguished Professor, from the Curtin Institute of Radio Astronomy, says “imminent contact” is unlikely. Instead, any discovery would likely be some sort of radio signal. And he wouldn’t immediately call the Men In Black. He says he’d probably call some trusted colleagues, work on the scientific proof, and then eventually inform his university bosses. 

“It’s one of the topics that people find fun to discuss,” he says. 

“The thought experiment is … you find a signal … do you call the President? The Prime Minister? For those of us who work in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence, it’s something you seriously think about. What if? What next?

“From a scientific point of view, if you find something interesting then you embark on a whole process of verification. Having found one interesting signal, you’d want to find it again with different telescopes at different times. You’d need different facilities. So you’d need a way to find that without giving the game away.” 

“The thought experiment is … you find a signal … do you call the President? The Prime Minister? For those of us who work in the search for extra-terrestrial intelligence, it’s something you seriously think about. What if? What next?

Various protocols are in place that have been agreed on by a range of global institutions. One of the most well-known is the SETI Institute’s Declaration of Principles Concerning the Conduct of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. 

The principles focus on the transparency of SETI experiments, the need to verify any suspected detection, the full and open reporting of any conclusions, and the revelation of all data necessary to the broader scientific community. They also declare the discovery should be monitored and the data appropriately handled – and, assuming it involves electromagnetic signals, the need to protect the right frequencies. 

If a signal is definitely detected, a Post-Detection Task Group should be set up to support the process, and a body such as the United Nations would need to guide the response. 

So the moment of contact is unlikely to involve a Jodie Foster-type character having a Eureka moment and then going on to meet the intelligence face on.

Tingay says that while various protocols have been discussed, there’s nothing formal that binds the growing number of people involved in SETI. And he adds that, despite popular conceptions and the recent interest in UFOs, if any contact eventually happens it will be an interplanetary signal, not a flying saucer about to land.

“A billion minus one times out of a billion, it’s not going to be an alien,” he says.

“My approach would be to reach out to my most trusted mates around the world, have a word, bring them in on it, then see how it goes. Once verified I would probably first call my vice chancellor.” 

Media reports say the looming UFO report will not rule out the chance that UFOs (or UAFs) spotted by Navy pilots come from somewhere else in the universe – but they are also not ruling out that they come from other nations, rather than other planets. 

The Conversation quizzed five experts on their belief in intelligent aliens – not necessarily flying the UFOs, but out there, somewhere. Four of them think they exist – but none thought they were behind the controls of anything spotted in Earth’s atmosphere. 

Astrobiologist Jonti Horner, from the University of Southern Queensland, says it’s a “definite yes” that other intelligent beings exist because of the sheer number of galaxies in the cosmos. 

“I find it impossible to believe Earth is the only planet that has life – including intelligent and technologically advanced life,” he says, adding that finding proof in that vast expanse will be “astonishingly hard.” 

Tingay was also canvassed by The Conversation. He agrees that it is “hard to believe that the particular mix of conditions that resulted in life only occurred on Earth” – but that “life” could just be bacteria. 

Planetary scientist Helen Maynard-Casely, from the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, thinks it’s “only a matter of time” before we find some sort of alien life. “But whether it can say hello to us, well, that’s a different question.”

“But whether it can say hello to us, well, that’s a different question.” 

Rebecca Allen, a space technology expert from Swinburne University, says people usually think of a humanoid life form when they think about aliens, but that it’s more likely to be microorganisms. “But hope remains,” she says. 

The outlier is astrobiologist Martin Van Kranendonk, who says the answer is “no”. But he goes on to concede that the full answer is that we don’t know. 

“Perhaps one day we can know if we have nearby inter-planetary neighbours, or if indeed we are alone,” the University of New South Wales Professor says. “Or perhaps we never will.”  

Meanwhile, over at The Guardian, SETI Institute astronomer Seth Shostak says our first contact could be with artificial intelligence. 

Shostak points out the diversity of life on Earth, – how the millions of species even here look so different from each other – to argue that ET probably wouldn’t look humanoid. 

In fact, he doesn’t even think they’d be carbon-based life forms. “Their cognitive abilities will probably not be powered by a spongy mass of cells we’d call a brain,” he writes. “They will probably have gone beyond biological smarts and, indeed, beyond biology itself. They won’t be alive.”

“Their cognitive abilities will probably not be powered by a spongy mass of cells we’d call a brain,” he writes. “They will probably have gone beyond biological smarts and, indeed, beyond biology itself. They won’t be alive.” 

Even with humanity’s fastest rocket it would take 75,000 years to get to Proxima Centauri, the closest habitable system, he says. So any interplanetary explorers would have to be synthetic.

“Artificial intelligence aliens may not be as appealing as those who are warm-blooded and squishy, but we shouldn’t get hung up on an anthropocentric viewpoint,” he says. 

Astronomer Carl Sagan (who was also the author of Contact, which was turned into the film starring Jodie Foster) popularised the saying that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”.  

Tingay agrees, and says talking about the search for other life is important because it underlines the importance of the scientific process, while capturing the public’s imagination. 

“Lots of scientists and astronomers have avoided talking about it,” he says. 

“But I like to present it as just another scientific activity. It’s a good topic for the public. It captures everyone’s imagination. It allows you to talk about scientific discovery, the probability of the success of an experiment versus the impact of a result. 

“Searching for ET has a low probability of success but if successful that’s an enormous impact. It allows you to talk about the scientific process in general. You can talk about the evidence, about balancing up different expectations.” 

In the absence of any proof that ET exists, scientists have long relied on the Drake Equation. It’s a formulaic way of expressing what most of the experts above have said. 

While the equation has many unknowns, its creator Frank Drake concluded that “human civilisation is likely to be unique in the cosmos only if the odds of a civilizsation developing on a habitable planet are less than about one in 10 billion trillion, or one part in 10 to the 22nd power”. 

Since then, many experts have argued that the equation is outdated, and even called it “deceptively simple”. 

While the imminent UFO report has rekindled the fascination with aliens, we still don’t know what the truth is.